Navigating today’s economic fog: steering your business toward the 10% that thrive

The UK economy feels like a thick fog right now: persistent inflation, war in Europe, and shifting policy create a haze that makes each decision harder. Many businesses, uncertain of what lies ahead, simply try to survive. The data show this caution is justified: studies suggest that only about 10% of businesses achieve significantly higher growth over a ten-year span following a recession. The other 90% barely budge. Put another way, a handful of companies emerge from crises transformed, growing by several hundred percent, while most treads water. The good news is, this outcome is partly a choice. Firms that focus on clear goals and disciplined execution can move into that fast-growing decile. But it takes strategy, relentless focus, and smart financial management.

The fog of uncertainty makes downturns feel like only threats. In reality, recessions are a fork in the road – rife with danger for the unprepared, but also ripe with opportunity for the proactive. Savvy leaders treat a downturn as a time to prepare, not panic. History backs this up: during the 2008–09 recession, companies like Lego, Netflix and Walmart all continued to grow by investing in products and customers, rather than slashing everything. Put simply, recession may force tough cost cuts, but it also clears the field: the strongest players often can win market share as weaker rivals stumble. As one analysis notes, the best managed survivors often expand their share even as others fail, setting themselves up to lead when the recovery comes.

What do the winners do differently?

1. Surgical cost discipline: everyone must trim waste, but top companies avoid the reflex to cut arbitrarily. Instead, they slice out unprofitable segments and renegotiate expenses, while protecting investments that drive growth. (One study found that firms which cut costs without slashing staff , and instead keep innovating, outperform peers after a downturn.)

2. Strategic pricing: winners closely guard their margins and look for price adjustments that reflect higher costs or unique value, rather than hoping to sell more at a loss.

3. Customer-centric mindset: deepening relationships and service quality while others back off. This can mean even making considered acquisitions: carefully buying competitors or customers at a discount to accelerate growth, since consolidation in tough times can be cheaper and faster than organic growth.

4. Importantly, winning firms keep a tight grip on working capital. They forecast cashflow diligently, so they always know how much cash is coming in and out. As one expert put it, cash-flow forecasting is “the most important way” to understand working capital, ensuring businesses have all the information at their fingertips to make quick decisions.

What do companies stagnating get wrong?

By contrast, the 90% that stagnate share some familiar missteps. Many fall into reactive cost-cutting, axing budgets in panic rather than precision. For example, we hear stories of firms completely slashing digital marketing or training without understanding the impact on revenues. As one accountant observed, desperate businesses will cancel ad campaigns “when they don’t know their numbers or KPIs enough to know how much income” those ads actually drive. This kind of blanket chop can actually harm growth, because you may cut off your fastest routes to new customers or better margins.

Others make the mistake of spreading themselves too thin: chasing every opportunity, entering unrelated markets, or piling on new projects when focus should be on core strengths. And some simply hesitate, delaying tough decisions, burying heads in the sand until the storm passes. Hesitation can be fatal: in a crisis, being slow to act cedes advantage to nimbler rivals.

What are the fundamentals of growth?

So how can you ensure your business is among the resilient 10% that grow? It comes down to fundamentals.

First, clean up your data. This means getting your accounts and customer data in order so you can spot trends and risks. For example, making sure your financial reports are accurate and updated (even filing more detailed accounts if needed) ensures your credit profile reflects reality. (In fact, providing up-to-date financials to rating agencies can lift your credit score and recommended limits.). Second, scenario-plan your finances. Don’t rely on one forecast, map out best- and worst-case scenarios. Prepare for a range of possibilities (e.g. persistent inflation, sudden demand shifts), deciding now how you’d respond. This will help prevent panic when the unknown arrives.

Third, manage your credit risk. Keep a close eye on the companies you sell to and buy from. A good practice is to regularly run credit checks on key customers and suppliers. As one expert notes, credit-checking “gives you a clear picture of someone’s financial health,” so you can set sensible payment terms or limits. That way, if a customer’s outlook worsens, you see it early and can protect your cashflow.

Fourth, strengthen your working capital. This might mean negotiating longer payment terms with suppliers, tightening inventory, or even locking in fixed financing. Remember that business credit limits are like “0% working capital”: if you have a strong credit score, rating agencies will allow you a higher trade credit, meaning you can buy supplies without upfront cash, effectively interest-free financing. Maintaining or boosting that score (by filing full accounts, paying on time, and proactively correcting errors) can directly put more cash in your pocket.

Finally, remember that help is available to put these ideas into practice. At Capitalise, we offer tools to make credit and funding work in your favour. Our platform lets you view up-to-date credit reports on any UK business, whether it’s a customer, a supplier or a partner. By seeing business credit scores, limits and payment history, you can decide which invoices to chase first and who deserves more generous terms.
You can also check your own business credit profile. This shows you how strong your business looks to others, whether you’re bidding for contracts, negotiating with suppliers, or applying for a loan, you’ll know exactly where you stand.

If you need to access working capital, at Capitalise we connect you to a marketplace of over 130 lenders. With one application, our funding experts match you to loans or facilities that suit your needs and will support you every step of the process.

In the end, leadership in uncertain times boils down to choice. As CEO, I firmly believe you can pick which category you fall into. By focusing on clear data, planning ahead, and exercising disciplined financial control, you can guide your business out of the fog and into growth. The coming months may be rocky, but remember: chaos breeds opportunity for those ready to seize it. With the right strategy, even a stormy market can be the season you transform your business and leave stagnation behind.